Russia: the fundamental story is intact, sanctions pose downside risks

United Kingdom, 5/3/18,  by Amundi


The macro outlook: The outlook for the Russian economy is positive, supported by expansive monetary policy, robust global trade and increasing oil price, even though the current context has deteriorated on the back of the last round of sanctions. Russia external position makes the economy resilient to external shocks. The biggest risk is rapresented by a decline of the oil price, although the recent adoption of a new fiscal rule has made the country fiscal accounts less vulnerable than before to oil price swings.
Rouble: We expect that the Rouble will continue to be a shock absorber given the tail risks brought up by the latest round of US sanctions. However, from a valuation perspective, our model shows USDRUB to be fairly valued at 61-62 range, as the oil price remains supported. We do not expect Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to hike rates in near term but CBR might take a pause in 1H18 from its current easing stance and re-estabilish it once the ‘dust’ settles.
Equity: We remain constructive on Russian equity however risks of further additions of new firms or businessmen to the list of sanctions will remain an overhang. The Russian equity index appears quite cheap, we believe it will be crucial to select the names and the sectors less exposed to chain distruptions and more sheltered from potential future sanctions.
Fixed income: We maintain a constructive stance in the Russian fixed income market, preferring sovereign, quasi-sovereign issuers and financials on the credit side. We see limited risk of broad contagion to other EM countries, Russia being an idiosyncratic story.

Unfortunately, it seems that we had a small technical problem. Can you try your luck again?
About Amundi

Amundi is Europe’s largest asset manager by assets under management and ranks in the top 10[1] globally. It manages more than 1.470 trillion[2] euros of assets across six main investment hubs[3]. Amundi offers its clients in Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and the Americas a wealth of market expertise and a full range of capabilities across the active, passive and real assets investment universes. Clients also have access to a complete set of services and tools. Headquartered in Paris, and listed since November 2015, Amundi is the 1st asset manager in Europe by market capitalization[4].


Thanks to its unique research capabilities and the skills of close to 4,500 team members and market experts based in 37 countries, Amundi provides retail, institutional and corporate clients with innovative investment strategies and solutions tailored to their needs, targeted outcomes and risk profiles.


Amundi. Confidence must be earned.


Visit for more information or to find an Amundi office near you.




  1. ^ [1] Source IPE “Top 400 asset managers” published in June 2018 and based on AUM as of end December 2017
  2. ^ [2] Amundi figures as of September 30, 2018
  3. ^ [3] Investment hubs: Boston, Dublin, London, Milan, Paris and Tokyo
  4. ^ [4] Based on market capitalization as of September 30, 2018

A question? A specific need? CONTACT US!

Sites internet Amundi