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Investment Talks - 2020 outlook for the US 10-year Treasury bond
London, UK, December 19, 2019
- In 2019, 10-year US Treasury bonds traded in a range of 1.46-2.78%, the fourth-widest range since 2010.
- In 2020, we think the 10-year Treasury may trade in a similar range, with additional volatility arising from many of the same factors that drove volatility in 2019. We don’t expect the benchmark bond to exhibit a particular bias towards going higher or lower, assuming certain outlier scenarios are avoided.
- The current cyclical slowdown phase calls for caution, but investors may also want to prepare for a U-turn if and when earnings and economic growth reaccelerates. A macro environment marked by stabilising growth and a patient but supportive Federal Reserve should be positive for risk assets in general.
Experts
Paresh Upadhyaya is Director of Currency Strategy and a Portfolio Manager for multi-sector strategies. He also leads Amundi Pioneer’s currency research effort out of Boston and serves as an ad[...]
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Marco Pirondini is Senior Managing Director, Head of Equities, US, and Portfolio Manager. He co-manages Global Equity and Multi Asset Income portfolios. As Head of Equities, US, he oversees th[...]
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